Imo that article/report is click-bait fearmongering. Examples:...

Imo that article/report is click-bait fearmongering.

Examples:

1/

"From 2026, alternate battery chemistries could place some price pressure on lithium-ion EV batteries, resulting in a fall in lithium prices for the rest of the outlook period."

Big call.
“Could”
Sodium batteries etc to displace significant volumes of Li-ion in EV’s…? Doubtful, considering specific characteristics; might dent low-range, small vehicles. Dyor.


2/

“The forecasts expect lithium spodumene prices to rise to US$1,360 a tonne by 2026 before falling to US$1,090 by 2029.”

Big call forecasting out this far, so specifically.
Who forecast the recent surge in pricing? Basically no-one came close.
Afaict $1090 in 2029 sees PLS closing its doors.
I doubt that.


3/

What is said about supply forecast:
“Australia's share of lithium production to fall: Global lithium output rose 44% year-on-year in 2023, to 993,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent. Australia accounted for 46% of global output in 2023 and projected to add more lithium output than any other country between 2023 and 2029. However, a strong rise in production from other countries such as China, Zimbabwe and Argentina will ease Australia's share of global output to 32% by 2029”

What I interpret from its forecast:
2023: Australia produced 46% of 993kt LCE = 457kt.

2029: Australia to produce 32% of 2.3Mt LCE = 736kt.
= output to increase by nearly 300kt LCE
or by over 60%
or by circa 2.2Mt SC6 (spod equivalent).

That’s hardly negative.


4/

Article reports that
“The table below implies most large cap producers, including Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) and IGO (ASX: IGO), remain profitable at current prices.”

….while the table shows only the reported cash cost of production, and makes no mention of all-in costs.


DYOR


Ps. Yes we ageee that GLN has promise; the resource is too good for it not to be developed into a profitable operation, imo.
How/if/when GLN can do that is part of the “fun” of the Stockmarket I suppose
GLA