Binding offtakes will also play a part in the shorter term.

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tbirdsrgo

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02/02/24

08:02

Post #: 72196820
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Originally posted by Robot42: ↑

Not necessarily. They previously updated us to say the total cost of the project was circa $1.5b including contingency. There is debt of $900m+, and convertible notes of $2-300m so there was always a short fall of $200-300m. Sorry I don't have the figures in front of me so going off the top of my head. I had hoped the recent Iron Ore prices and apparent stabilisation in delivery costs would decrease the value of the equity required but clearly that hasn't occurred.

I assume this is mostly a requirement of the debt drawdown, and potentially was increased by NAIF after other projects they funded went broke and we revised out cost estimates last year.

On future value and all that... I had some rough calcs suggesting $2-4 range in the future depending on salt prices based on a couple of different metrics - dividend yield of approximately 5%, and P/E of 15. These are a bit higher than you'd normally see in a mining project, but that reflects the 'limitless' salt and low ongoing operational costs that make this just a long term low risk play for investors like Australian Super.

So... with 3b shares on issue that calc is coming out at $1.88 per share. But that is at some point in the future when income is very stable and debt is covered, so 5+ years after opening? I'd suggest we will be in the $1-2 range long term.

Much harder to predict the next 3 years until we see salt sales coming though however... maybe 30-50c when ponds are filled and all approvals sorted? That is pure speculation on my part.

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Binding offtakes will also play a part in the shorter term.

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Binding offtakes will also play a part in the shorter term.

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Binding offtakes will also play a part in the shorter term.

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