Copper Hot, Once in a generation does a stock like HAV come...

Copper Hot,

Once in a generation does a stock like HAV come along. IMHO.

How does one recognise "heavy" generally?

Via research. Lots of it.

For me with Australian mining companies, that involved creating my own (Excel based) In Situ Value calculation, based on published JORC resources. Then running sensitivities.

It also involved reading the available Research Reports and looking at other mining companies JORC resources (for me, that usually involves benchmarking with RXM and RMS for each of their projects).

Finally, complete your own SWOT  matrix (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) for the Company in question.

IMHO, if you look at the current HAV market capitalisation of $50 million this effectively comprises only the Portia Gold Project:

(a) based on a A$1,500/oz gold price, HAV has estimated net cash flows of $35 million from the Base of Tertiary gold at Portia ^; and
(b) $15 million (Portia bedrock gold, based on an estimated/probable initial bulk sample recovery of 50m x 30m x 25m at 6.7g/t, SG2.4 #).

Effectively, the value of Kalkaroo is not reflected in the current HAV share price.

HAV has 915,500 resource tonnes of CU, of which 622,500 tonnes are at Kalkaroo (Havilah's second targeted copper-gold mine, 100% owned by HAV).

For Kalkaroo, the HAV Research Report (from 18 March 2015) had an unrisked NPV (at 10%) range of $295 million to $508 million. On a fully DILUTED basis this represents $1.49 to $2.57 per HAV share.

Kalkaroo in my In Situ Value model accounts for around $2 per HAV share on a fully diluted basis (about the mid-point of the above NPV range).

Once you have finished your research, you also have to have conviction. Conviction to back your gut with cold, hard cash.

Hope this helps.

Cheers

These are only my random thoughts and it does not constitute investment advice. Before acting on any information you read and before making any financial or investment decisions, you should always consult your advisor(s) or other relevant professional experts.

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