Ann: A2M performs ahead of plan, updates forecast, page-7

Most people forgot why there's a recent run up in share price of A2M. The First NZ report intentionally ignored this fact today! The answer is quite simple. 83% increase in earnings within 4 months. BANG!

Oh yes, and what's the share price before this announcement? It was 84 cents. Where is it now? 99 cts. % share price increase? Meagre 18%!!

The media reports on it going up by 65pct is all biased. You can even say that it has gone up from the 40s earlier this year and say it has gone up 100pct! Media being media will do what media does, i.e. cook up stories to suit their agenda to grab attention.

What we have to focus on is what information was released when and the relative impact of the information. Now that we know the earnings have increased and the likelihood of even more upgrades, are we giving it only an extra 18pct of value? Or will more people think we should prize the stock higher?

What is Bellamy's profit? How much are people paying for Bellamy profit? Bellamy mkt cap is 1.02 billion dollars for God's sake! What do they have to show thus far? No earnings guidance for FY16 thus far! Last year's profit was 12m ebitda. When it was known as 12m ebitda what was BAL mkt cap? It was still around 5 dollars in August before the annual report earnings was out. Now it's close to 11 dollars!! Almost 100pct increase before and after the news of profit hitting 12m!

A2M is now forecasting a DOUBLING of what BAL has achieved over last year with 20m ebitda (aud). 18 pct share price rise?? Guys, you gotta be serious with what you're looking at! So I think a forecast of $1.50 will very much be warranted as it will only give it then a similar mkt cap as BAL. It's either BAL needs to drop 30 pct tmrw, or A2M needs to rise 30 pct soon!

As for timing, I can't guarantee it will be $1.50 tmrw, but I'm confident it will happen in the next few months. Let us focus on the big picture and avoid arguing with people who don't see it. Each to its own! DYOR!