This is a disaster, a slow moving train crash unfolding in front of our eyes. I don;t know where to begin
2019 DFS has 1.24Mt of lead production or 81.5% of 16 years x 95ktpa annual lead production accounting for ramp up and wind down years.
New mine plan has 13 years of 93ktpa lead production, which at also 81.5% = 0.99Mt of lead prod'n LOM...
Similar collapse in Mine Reserve from nominally 19.2Mt (ie 16 years @ 1.2Mtpa) to only 16Mt (ie 13 years @ 1.3Mtpa). Again, there is lower throughout ramp up and wind down years, but that's nearly a 20% drop in the mining reserve WFT?
No other way to explain it imo than a huge downgrade of the Mineral Resource the DFS was based on results from detailed new grade control drilling. Tonnes and grade don;t both precipitously drop for no reason... Obviously grade control drilling results would have come in quite some time ago, long enough for a new MRE to be crunched, a new mine plan to be updated (including trying to push the plant harder to make up for falling grade) and then the new plan to be considered and approved by the board for release. Makes me wonder about the timing of DeSilva selling down 22M shares in May, coinciding with the first lift in shorts 24th to 26th May, and of course the rapid lift in shorts accompanying the rapid fall in share price over June-July.
Don't get me started on what this does to margins and free cashflow next year during a long ramp up... better hope like hell the lead price doesn;t continue to fall into a global downturn. Just enough cash to make Jan'23 practical completion of project build way I read the accounts, expect the shorts to cover into a CR.
PLEASE, someone tell me I'm wrong and missed something. This sort of disaster and market front running bad news is no good for the entire junior industry. It;s hard enough to get investor interest in pre-development or developing projects as it is without these sort of f-ups poisoning the well for everybody else...
(20min delay)