Comparing TNT to a SaaS provider like Zoom is to not understand TNT (or Zoom i suppose).
TNT is a mature business. It's acquisitions are also mature. It is also not a SaaS product, it is far less scalable and more labour intensive.
TNT is not a tech stock and i am not sure what you are referring to with a 'growth sector'. Just because a sector is growing you dish out 15x EBITDA multiples?
As I said, TNT's acquisitions provide a fantastic benchmark for CURRENT valuations in this sector. The highest valuation TNT has paid is 5x EBITDA. Why would immediately 3x the valuation of an acquisition when the acquirer has no track record of extracting 3x earnings from acquisitions?
"Where else can you get a minimum 6.875% return pa in a GROWING sector that has plenty of room for an exit down the road?" - how about the acquisitions TNT has made that all have returns of at least 20% (EBITDA valuations of up to 5x)? business are not savings accounts generating interest. The average EV/EBIT multiple on the ASX200 is ~12. Loosely, most of the ASX 200 provide a better return.
As i've said many times, i am bullish on the sector and TNT. However i think the current SP is fair and i also think TNT have A LOT to prove before this can stabilise at over 30c.
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