Thanks for the response mate.
A few comments:
- the $260m synergies expected to be harvested by the end of year 6 are pre-tax. Assuming a 30% tax rate, the real cashflow impact (before restructuring costs) would be $180m after tax.
- I am not in the least bit across any ROE, EPS, pre/post synergy multiples etc, and do not doubt any of your analysis above. It may well be true that shareholders of ANZ will reap more economic wealth creation as a result of the transaction vs not undertaking the transaction. However the point still remains: ANZ bought back shares for $1.5bn, then reissued those shares for $1.02bn 116 days later for a $480m value transfer out of the company. Had they not undertaken the SBB, the transaction could still have been done with all the same potential benefits outlined above, but it would also be $480m better off.
So my comments are really just framed around the value destruction of their preceding capital management, not the standalone merits of the transaction.
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