OAR (ASX) Ann: Acquisition of Crown PGE-Nickel-Copper Project

Originally posted by setfire2thehive ↑

Post #: 43075729

Can probably add a 4th project to @billyen's post.

"I believe OAR offers an amazing buying opportunity.
I've fallen in love with bagging hunting and I only invest in stocks that have the potential to 20-30 bags.
They don't always get there but, that's the treasure hunt we are all in.

With my top down approach. I look at the sector. Throw every stock on a spreadsheet and just plow throw all the data. Read every ASX release, report. Google, Once the list is smaller…speak to management if needed, investors etc. Then check out everything the directors and management every did, good or bad.
If little Bobby pushed Cindy off the swing when he was 5…I want to know about it.

Oakdale Resources has some interesting assets/projects that I don't think the market fully understands.
First off...as it's a shell, it VERY high RISK.
(I'd literally written-off my money I've put into it.)

It's RISK/REWARD is very, VERY high though.
If the company can execute on 1 if not all 3 projects.
The reward will be VERY high IMO.

Why I like OAR?
Each project itself...if that was all that OAR had would be worth many bags IMO.
So to find this thing at THIS price with 3...even if 2 fail. I believe, I'll do well.

Also...IMO, I believe it's very undervalued.
So much so that if this things MC was 5-7M...I'd be in.

The current STAR project:
1.
Carlin Tread, Nevada.
(Alpine GOLD Project)
https://www.oakdaleresources.com.au/copy-of-graphite-project

I'm been an admirer of the Carlin Tread area for about 8 years since I read about it in Barrick's/Newmount holdings. They have been trying to do a merger deal on their holding for years. They pulled it off last year.

It makes the super pit look like a thrift shop. The area is PACKED with ten's of millions of ozs.
The thing is...it's microscope gold. The area was drilled over and over but, someone decided to look at the tiny gold.
1 gold hit sets OAR off.

I will be sharing a lot more of my research on the Carlin Tread.
I've been speaking to a lot of Australian investors and not many are aware of the Carlin Tread.
For any company to be prospecting in the area is big...if they find something.
It will be special!
I think once the market understand and EVEN KNOWS that a ASX spec is prospecting there..the SP will be held in better light.

It's number 2 on the TOP 10 Gold mines in the world. #2!!!
https://investingnews.com/daily/res...-investing/gold-investing/largest-gold-mines/

**Good news is OAR's Geo knows the area very well and already hit a big find before in the area.
This changes the odds a bit IMO.

I’m also a gold bug and was in SBM, NST…
I found them early but, didn’t ride them all the way up, like I should have.

2.
It got this Chimu Gold Plant-Peru. 100% owned.
https://www.oakdaleresources.com.au/the-chimu-gold-plant

It's a Gold lixiviation plant.
according to CSIRO...these things go for 30M new.
I'm thinking they'd make some income off local miners or flip it down the road for a few bucks?

3.
It's got a Halloysite/ ADN play.
(Eyre Peninsula area in SA)
It's got a massive lease (100%) right next to MT. Hope. Not 20-30kms away, it borders it.
There's good nearogly and bad...this is good IMO.

If one believes in ADN success and I do...I believe ADN will have a MC in the 300-500M range in 1-2 years.
OAR local won't go un-noticed from the market much longer.

*all of ADNs drilling at Mt.Hope only helps the OAR SP over the next 12+ months.

*Positives:
-It's a very cheap shell but, with a couple different assets/projects.
Not many shells have 1 decent asset, this has 2-3+

-Not many ADN SHs know about the ADN/Hollysite connection.
-I'd assume some money would follow holloysite money flows into OAR...this itself could be good for OAR.
-Not many Australian investors know about the size of the Carlin Gold Trend.

-The last AR shows the top20 with over 51% (that's 5 months old)
I'm a big fan of the top20 being 50-70%+
My research shows these companies are the one with 20+baggers.
(simply put, there's NO supply to BUY. Up she goes.)

add to the fact that 50k amost buys you 5% of the company...
if X amount can get into sticky hands? Supply will be crazy tight.

-Company is "currently" drilling and news could pop this anytime.
-I'm surprised by the MC of many ASX gold specs...many in the 20-30M range. Yet with poor ground and history.
I'll be doing COMPS of some of them in the future.
-The TOP 20 has some very successful investors with great track records of getting in VERY early and pulling off 30,40 baggers!
FOLLOW the SMART money.

-I heard the company invited some investors to Nevada last year to look at the project and they saw good gold geology on the land.
This is hearsay though and they aren't GEO's.
-As a gold play, it's somewhat defensive if the market goes bad.
Gold will be the only safe place IMO.

*Negatives:
-Chairmen is Christopher Gale (LRS's ED) . LRS screwed up the Li, lost ASX retail a lot.
I think they may bring someone else in (gold guy) or Gale is replaced?
I and others would support this.
-550M S/O and 140M options at a .004 strike price.Exp in Dec 2021.
-Will need a CR soon as cash low.
-They had a lease around the Peru plant but, didn't find anything.

Upside...

ADN's success and it's SP going up will be important for OAR in the next 6-12 months.
I don't agree but, so many ASX investors like the sub 10M MC near to a big bagger.
(many get upset they didn't get in earlier on the BIG stock so the try and find similar stocks.)

If ADN pops, and I believe it will...this should follow.
With it's extreme low MC...it could get interesting with any Mt.Hope news this year.

I just can't see any gold shells on the ASX with these many things going for it and the upside.
I've looked.

I've found some interesting research and will be updating everyone to it in the coming weeks/months.
Might surprise a few.

This is a MAJOR...DYOR!!

IMO
DYOR!!

DISCLOSURE:
I'M A INVESTOR AND MAY SELL AT ANY TIME, MY RESEARCH IS ONLY A STEPPING STONE FOR YOUR OWN DD.
I currently have a holding in OAR."

I personally like peru

"

IMV these are the 2 key pages of the report.

Peru for short term cash flow.
Funds to explore for a hail mary in Nevada.

Post #:40486181

"Their unit cost using chimu feed is $880 p/oz and burpar feed expected to be $482p/oz.

Now from what I understand this plant is a CIP and will then ship it's product to the metalore refinery - which then produces dore (roughly 75%+gold) before being shipped to Switzerland for conversion to bullion.

So with that in mind I would assume chimu feed at opex cost $880 must be atleast the limit as to what their saleable product would need to be - otherwise why even present it as an option. (this is strictly an assumption and if anyone can confirm the going price for typical grade of a CIP process that would be good)

Assuming opex of $480 and that $880 is a fair price to sell they're processing gold ore to refinery plant (see paragraph above) - also assume the use burpar feed

@ 40TDP feed - to produce 18ounce a day - assuming $482 opex 6600 oz p/a = ~3.8m AUD profit p/a. (before tax/royalties/etc etc)
@ 200TPD feed - to produce 100 ounce a day assuming $482 opex 33600 oz p/a = ~19.7m AUD profit p/a. (before tax/royalties/etc etc)

That's the expected run rate by 2020.

If that's achievable at P/E ratio of 10 that 200m MC. or 40bags. I consider this to be an overvaluation so take it at face value as I've not included a lot of other costs and I've made a bunch of assumptions (critical feedback welcomed/encouraged.)

As a worse case scenario, i'll assume that after tax-royalties etc etc that at best the company only makes a 20% margin. If again we take the $880 as the minimum received price for product at 20% margin would result in an AISC of ~$740 p/oz.

@ 40TDP assuming $740 opex 6600 oz p/a = ~1.3m AUD profit p/a. (after tax royalties etc)
@ 200TPD assuming $740 opex 33600 oz p/a = ~6.9m AUD profit p/a. (after tax royalties etc)

P/E ratio of 10 = 69mAUD = 12 bags from current MC by EOY 2020.

Remaining cognizant that this is calcs done off my head after only initial due diligence. Would be great to get some smarter heads with stronger processing background who can determine some more finite pricing on saleable product. Or an accounting background who can dust up these archaic NPV calcs.

On face value - there appears a lot of potential on the FCF as early as next quarter - Then you've got the value creation of the target of 2M oz.

*Information taken from all company's announcements. assumptions stated where applicable

SF2TH'

https://commsec.api.markitondemand....pdf?access_token=dklOsqJhwKUudVeEBZctyYzi0QfC

Use the above link to see where i got my figures from. Screenshot below.

I done these really rough first cut calc which i'll need to re-visit because to be honest they seem way to high to be true.

On a quick reflection these would represent the NPV of perhaps that particular asset, but would not take into consideration general working capital/exploration and other expenditure on other assets so it's beginning to look like it make more sense.

The key variable is the sale price of the product from the plant. But as bolded in the embedded posts they have proposed 2 feed sources one at around $800 opex cost p/ounce and another $482. My key assumption was that their saleable product must be more than $800 an ounce and their potential margin may be up to $400 p/ounce if they gain the burpar feed source at the assumptions they made.

These calcs were done back in september so the gold price has increased significantly and the AUD has weakened. That said, as they purchase the feed, the opex will go up but so too will the saleable concentrate.

Hoping people can start building off what i've done and get some more concrete details regarding the
process circuit and rough fundamentals of valuation and expected opex/profits."

As always DYOR but 4 projects now 2m MC. short term cashflow prospects from Peru.
major upside in exploration in nevada for gold, nearology play in WA for nickle-palladium-copper, nearology play to ADN for halloysite/HPA (next door).

SF2TH

Expand

Great post!!!

Which would be the best project to start drilling or to work on to get some interest in OAR?

(20min delay)
Last 0.2¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $6.307M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.2¢	0.2¢	0.2¢	$4K	2M

No.	Vol.	Price($)
67	182429711	0.001
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.002	24565817	12
0.003	22907595	20
0.004	20094529	18
0.005	9524826	16
0.006	9814254	11

Ann: Acquisition of Crown PGE-Nickel-Copper Project, page-231

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