to pay down the below in 2 years just isn't going to happen,...

to pay down the below in 2 years just isn't going to happen, unfortunately.

- AUD c$1.6b in debt ($1.1bn USD)
- AUD c$3.1b in deferred payments / profit sharing
= AUD c$4.7bn
plus interest costs which at 11% PA will run around $45m per quarter!

At today's pricing these mines are going to pull around AUD $700m in gross revenue post royalties but pre capex, interest, depreciation & tax per quarter. My estimate that's around c$4-500m free cashflow per quarter. Its going to be years 4 - 5 before we are free and clear of debt at current coal pricing, hence why we have a 5y facility perhaps?

This is all on the provision, current coal pricing holds and we don't pay a dividend from the operations from these mines / continue to pay a small dividend from the old operations as indicated by the company

Don't get me wrong still a company transformative buy (and I've scooped a lot with the recent retrace) but they arent out of the woods yet. Coal price needs to hold for a few quarters minimum, WHC also need to stabilise operations and increase output to hit their guidance numbers the above revenue estimates are based on. It might get bumpy along the way

I am more interested in the synergies with Winchester South given the proximity to Daunia and happy to find a like minded long term equity partner to fund that via sale of Blackwater at a bit of a scale premium to our aquisition, de-lever a little, and perhaps contract coal sales medium term.

If that happens will remove a lot of risk and this should be game on....