Ann: Acquisition of Interest in GOM - Investor Presentation, page-28

You seem to be very negative of this acquisition.

I've just done a forecast for FY24 based upon the numbers given by KAR (which is from 1st Jan to 31st Dec 2024) and it compares very well to BPT. The below is what you posted earlier about BPT

taken from the BPT's recent AGM presentation on the 14th of Nov, two days ago

BPT FY23 Financial Results production 19.5MMboe KAR Estimate for FY24 is around 13.5MMboe
BPT paid 4cps Div KAR No talk of a DivBPT Revenue 1.6b, Ebitda 1.0b KAR remain to be seen

So based on KAR's figures, I've got revenue of between US$962m to US$1.163bn, though this might need some tweaking the more we understand about the gas pricing as I've just used $80 per barrel across all production. Essentially Brazil is between $642m and $803m and the GOM being between $320m and $360m.

I've worked what I expect to be net profit (you didn't give that for BPT) which I estimate at around US$305m to US$386m, again with Brazil at US$213m to US$282.5m and the GOM at between US$92m and US$103m (btw this gives an acquisition cost of around about 7-8 times earnings which I'm happy with).

Converted this to EBITDA to compare to BPT's A$1bn, I have KAR at between US$697m and US$858m, well within the ranges of being comparable to BPT which is what I was identifying that there was a significant valuation gap between the 2 businesses.

Cash from Ops would be similar to EBITDA (but a little less due to the accounting treatment of the leased FPSO) so lets round down to reflect this (I have between $64m and $80m for the leased FPSO) so even using $80m, KAR should easily be generating US$600m cash from Ops. Take $160m off for finance costs / tax and capex of $47m (lets take the high end) and $87m for PB consideration, then you'd expect cash from ops at the lower end to be in the region of US$300m, which is why they were mentioning about paying off the debt over the next 2 years.

They could easily move towards even a small dividend out of this, lets say $US50m, which would equate to US6c or around AU9c per share which would be a good start IMO, paying a relatively small dividend.

You claim there is "a lot more drilling and exploration in the newly acquired assets" but thats already stated. $47m in 2024 (which will all be GOM) is around $150m from the joint venture which seems right for next year, even with this as I show cash generation will be significant.