Ann: Acquisition of Interest in GOM - Investor Presentation, page-50

I'm not experienced in Oiler investments. My experience lies more in determining valuations for any asset based on calculating the sum of NPVs of future cashflows/earnings.

I try to avoid opinions and deal in facts. Valuations are theoretical so I want to at least arrive at a "considered" opinion.

Firstly, Who Dat product is priced more in line with WTI:




Secondly, I can't find a chart of expected Bauna natural production decline. The resource is there, its a matter of determining how quickly you can extract it. The lower production guidance for CY24 surprises me a bit.



At 31Dec22, the Bauna 2P reserve was declared at 55MMbls. CY23 aimed for 11MMbls produced but the gas flare up impeded that in Q4FY23. Even still, I expected ~11MMbls produced for the next 4 years.

The BOD were looking for a fill in asset before Neon commenced production in maybe 2029. Who Dat fills that hole and has significant discovery upside.


Hard to imagine how the SP can open at $1.96 on friday. I imagine the Oil price getting whacked by NYMEX paper trades had a lot to do with it. It seems like BS to me.

Instos like Macquarie service their Soph clients ... not we Retailers. I imagine they will suppress the SP until Retailers are discouraged to participate in the CR, so they can pick up more Retailer blood for their Soph clients.

Still no shareholder returns and once again KAR management let down the party faithful. If they had started paying a dividend (even nominal), it would have encouraged Fundy investors (otherwise restricted to invest) and vital to share price discovery ... and the CR would've been carried out at a higher price.


AIMHO, of course.