Ann: Acquisition of Interest in GOM - Investor Presentation, page-47

From the FY23 presentation in Aug23:




From the Who Dat presentation:




The Brazil production guidance has been downgraded from 9 to 11mbpa (for the 12mths ended 30Jun24) ... to ... 8 to 10mbpa (for the 12mths ended 31Dec24).

After Patola began, we started with 40kbpd. It was always expected to fall to between 30 and 33kbpd, however, recently we are only producing 29kbpd at best.

Production of 30kbpd would have meant close to 12mbpa. However maintenance would have trimmed that. Now management have signaled a Brazil production downgrade.


OPEC is still signaling they will defend $80 Brent.


Also ... and correct me if I'm wrong ... but being in USA waters, the stated Who Dat production will be producing Oil for sale ... at WTI rates?

Who Dat has resource discovery upside ... and being a deep water project, the recent appointment of deep water specialist Mario Carminatti makes a lot of sense.


We paid A$1.107b for production of 4.5mbpa of WTI?

Meanwhile our 10mbpa of production that sells at a premium to Brent, justifies an enterprise value of A$1.4b (MC of A$1.1b + A$300m for the deferred acquisition liability)?


Either we paid too much for Who Dat or Brazil is seriously undervalued. I want to believe the latter. The FCF to MC ratio would be the envy of any business.