Ann: Acquisition of Minority JV Interest Karinga , page-7

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  1. 124 Posts.
    re: Ann: RUM: Acquisition of Minority JV Inte... Lukeod
    Using a discounted cash flow model I get the following share prices. It assumes the following assumptions are fixed.

    Assumptions:
    1. Discount Rate is 10%
    2. Number of Shares are 120,000,000
    3. Cash Flow per Ton or profit is $120 per ton
    4. Production begins in 2017
    5. All potash produced is sold

    So, based on the annual production rates below, the corresponding share price would be

    Annual Production = Share Price Today
    400,000t = $0.82
    800,000t = $1.64
    1,200,000t = $2.47
    1,600,000t = $3.29
    2,000,000t = $4.11
    2,400,000t = $4.93
    2,800,000t = $5.75
    3,200,000t = $6.58
    3,600,000t = $7.40
    4,000,000t = $8.22
    4,400,000t = $9.04
    4,800,000t = $9.87
    5,200,000t = $10.69
    5,600,000t = $11.51

    So RWD would need to announce that production would begin in 2017, with a production rate of around 5.6 million tons, and a profit of $120 per ton to get to approximately $11.1

    Using the same model, if I change production to commence in 2018 then the current share price calculates to $0.52, assuming 400,000 tons mined per annum.
 
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