sprott updated research:
RSG AU / LN 1Q25 Net cash: US$100m Project: Syama / Mako / MansalaMarket cap: A$1.05bn Price: A$0.495/sh Country: Mali / Senegal / GuineaREC. (unc): BUY TARGET (+0.20): A$1.25/sh RISK RATING (unc): HIGHWe think this week’s acquisition of Anglogold’s (previously advanced by Centamin) Doropo and ABC projects in Cote D’Ivoire is transformational for Resolute, giving them a nearly build-ready ~170kozpa growth asset that diversifies their jurisdictional exposure, both good outcomes in our view. Moreover, we think the price and structure were highly attractive at just US$150m cash, plus of which US$50m and US$75m are due 1.5 years and 2.5 years after close, with a modest 2% NSR and US$10m deferred payment on the earlier stage ABC project. We think management were candid and sensible about their timeline, planned project revisions (backup power, increased resettlement budget) and key considerations (adding mine building capacity via a Project Director role, and monitoring security given the asset’s location near the Burkina border).The benefits to the portfolio are significant – at US$3,000/oz, we estimate steady state US$181m of freecash flow and lifting group production to SCPe 562koz at US$1,380/oz AISC in 2029. At our LT US$3,000/oz gold price, the asset can be funded from cash flow without group cash flow going negative, at US$2,500/oz minimum cash is SCPe US$66m in early 2028 just before Doropo cash flow. We expect a US$200-250m project debt facility to be put in place per management commentary yesterday, to help manage treasury, but we don’t project balance sheet stress if Syama and Mako keep generating strong cash flow (US$34m in 1Q25 at a US$2,840/oz realized price. Model changes: We add Doropo into our modelled base case. We assume US$425m of capex and US$20m of pre-build evaluation costs (US$373m capex in the DFS), and lift opex to US$4/t mined, US$15/t processed and US$6/t G&A, resulting in LOM US$1,283/oz AISC at US$3,000/oz. This generates a US$582m NPV8% (US$777m NPV5%). Adding the US$150m staged transaction payments results in a US$442m NPV8%. We also add US$25/oz to our NAV for ABC, totaling US$54m. This increases group NAV8% to US$2.53bn. We reiterate our BUY rating and lift our price target to from A$1.05/sh to A$1.25/sh, based 0.7x NAV8%,3,000. We think this is a well-structured transaction for Resolute, ticking all the key boxes – near-term growth, diversification, and structured in a way that preserves the capital structure and offers potential to become a SCPe >500kozpa, >US$500m FCF/year producer. Transformational purchase of 170kozpa Doropo and 2Moz ABC in Cote D’Ivoire, we lift PT to A$1.25/shYesterday, Resolute reported that it has entered into a binding agreement to acquire the Doropo (DFS completed in 2024 by Centamin, 10-years at 167kozpa Au at US$1,047/oz AISC) and ABC (exploration-stage, 2.16Moz at 0.9g/t Au) gold projects in Côte d’Ivoire from AngloGold for US$150m (US$25m upfront on closing, US$50m paid 18 months after closing and US$75m paid 30 months after closing), a 2% uncapped NSR royalty over ABC (Farako Nafana, Kona and Windou) and US$10m contingent upon release of a feasibility study on ABC with reserves >1Moz Au. The transaction also includes the transfer of all Resolute exploration permits in Guinea to AngloGold (subject to government approval), or the payment of US$25m if transfer isn’t completed in 18 months. Next steps: Transaction close occurred on 2 May 2025. Resolute’s priorities in Doropo includecontinuation of the permitting and development with the existing staff and contractors, optimize the 2024 DFS primarily: updating Au price and associated pit optimizations, design layout, addition of diesel back-up power generators, review resettlement action plan, refresh cost estimates. As indicated on call, Resolute also intends to supplement its project team for project development. According to the indicative timeline, DFS optimization, final investment decision (FID), and permitting are targeted for completion in 4Q25, with construction beginning in 3Q26 and first gold production expected in 3Q28. To fund construction, Resolute plans to launch a project finance process to supplement its US$100 million net cash position and cash flow from the Syama and Mako operations. ABC is exploration stage and Resolute
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Ann: Acquisition of the Doropo and ABC Projects Presentation, page-23
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Mkt cap ! $1.213B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
58.0¢ | 59.3¢ | 57.0¢ | $10.64M | 18.51M |
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0.580 | 8690 | 1 |
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0.595 | 170431 | 7 |
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