The company after many years of fighting has finally achieved a turnaround. This process is far from complete, and could be a great success story over the next five years.
The company traded at $1.05 in early April so this is only a 9.5% premium to the then price. The last trading price of 94c was a weak trading period for the stock, and above average volumes were seen due to large holders selling.
Furthermore you have an underlying business with net cash, revenue growth of 8%+ and expanding gross margins - so sustainable NPAT GROWTH of 15%. Trading on a forward PE multiple of less than 15x.
PBG is an iconic brand with an entrenched customer base, the products demand higher profit margins than all other products in their category.
They have a store roll out strategy and are expanding their product range - which could further accelerate growth. For example, Bonds Baby range, which is now significant - just check out BIG W. BONDS knits etc., these are all new innovations.
While PBG has broker coverage they failed to appreciate the story. Their believe was it should trade below $1.00 because of currency concerns. But the then exchange rate was 71c, and PBG was still forecasting strong profit growth despite the strong headwinds. This should be seen as a sign of strength, particularly since the currency had upside potential at 71c.
I commend management for their performance over the last few years, it truly has been impressive. Obviously it has been pleasure to hold stock. But I am disappointed that management have accepted this offer with such haste.
I hope that shareholders appreciate this and we don't lose an iconic Austrlaian brand on a low PE MULTIPLE at a low point in their earnings cycle to an opportunistic US company.
This stock could continue to deliver 20%+ to shareholders for several years to comes therefore this decision seems short sighted. The boards roll is to look after shareholders interests, and I hope a more attractive offer is presented.
As in all negotiations the first offer should never be the last - hence my surprise at managements enthusiasm.
PBG Price at posting:
$1.16 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
