@Choops,
@chickendinner
this has little to do with being a spec stock, and a lot to do with mainpulation by vested interests.
any time you have a company moving toward a dilutive acquisition the stock price immediately goes under pressure - and brokers and funds specifically target such stock to short - trying to drive the price as low as possible - and then buy it back at the lows right at the point the transaction takes place.
the reaosn this works is that - as the sp falls - the math gets worse for the dilution - so the sp falls again - so the math gets worse.
its particularly potent on stocks that dont have enough cashflow to drive stock price valuation purely on earnings.
and there's not really anything mgt can do about it - deals take time to finalise - and companies witgh minimal cashflow can only use stock to buy other companies
the reaosn they do it though obviously is that the revneue growth of a transaction once done will justify the dilution over the long term
the same thing happens whenever a stock announces a capital raising. the stock falls toward the raise - then rises post the event
same will occur here,
with 280m less shares outgoing to Zentri but what about 12m more going to Noveda - the math of the company now becomes
'whats the cashlfow and growth of Bud/Noveda look like in 2-3 years time, but with 268m fewer shares on issue than we;d been pricing in''
I think youll find its actually strongly positive in a rebound from here - because there's 25% less dilution of the stock - for what was not a precisely known benefit - especially given Zentri remains in the business mix. so there's no damage to current Bud growth.
Might take the market a little while to digest - but if its up 30% in a month or 2 it wouldnt surprise me at all - because the organic growth profile for BUD is so good.
However what they do need to do is get much better at insto investor relations.
Theyve been shown to have no strong insto defensive support in the market - going by the buying records. State one is a retail investor brokerage. UBS Noms is also private client dominated.
