Thanks Wazz (@Wazz101) - agree. Another way of looking at it is...

Thanks Wazz (@Wazz101) - agree. Another way of looking at it is Testim lost 4% from a similar share as Axiron based on generics (this was a direct copy due to loss of patent). This happened over 2.5 years.

If this happens to Axiron then you would expect market share to drop from c.14% 10 10% over the next two years. This would mean US$ net sales would drop from US$155ish to US$105 or in A$205 to A$140... assuming royalties % stays the same - then Acrux revenues decline from A$30m to $20m (c. 14% royalty) - applying48% NPAT drops from $14.4m (8.6 cps) down to A$9.6m (5.8 cps)

so assuming a 70% payout ratio = 4 cps in year T+2 (and 5c in year T+1)