Hey Chuxa. As you might be referring to my numbers I'll provide some high level comment on my view now vs my original view. One good thing about HC is that history is stored, so you can see what was said previously - I'd encourage you to go back and take a look. All my assumptions and forecasts were set out in detail for users to agree/disagree with. Along the way as new data comes out I've had to take that new information, examine it, and then determine if things need to be changed.
A few big things have happened vs my original expectations: (1) ANZ subscriber growth has come in lower than my expectations. I had around 17k by the end of FY23 from memory and I can't see that being achieved (see my previous post in this thread). This can in part be attributed to covid. The ANZ market is where the ARR cream comes to us, so slower growth means a slower journey to a higher SP. (2) JV profits at 1H22 were well below my expectations. Part of this was investing in international expansion but the JV was a material component of my valuation upside. As we don't get much detail, I revisited a lot of my assumptions and added a further conservative lens i.e. pushing out revenue, reducing ARPU, adding costs etc. The key data point on the JV will come out in late August when the full year financials are released so I'll get another opportunity to review but I've had to reduce the profit contribution vs my original expectations (3) I've reduced my multiples in line with higher interest rates and the market de-rating growth stocks. This is entirely appropriate given where we are in the cycle.
But to cut a long story short, covid slowed inflection. I don't see us reaching $1 by FY23 but I do see us still on the right journey and path and I'm very confident that material SP appreciation is on the way, it will just take longer than expected. In my previous notes I also set out some things to look for that will help us get to that level. That included getting broker coverage (done), more insto ownership (not yet) and our first enterprise sales (not yet). These are the key things to look for from a business/market perspective.
I'm still holding and I remain very excited about the future even though recent SP action has been poor.
BCC Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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