Well well well, we learn by reflection. What can we learn from the previous FY results as we are anticipating the new set of reports dropping this week?
I for one have a few thoughts around the BCCs performance so far (I'm steering away from pessimism and more towards realism):
1. Inflection - much has been discussed if BCC eas to go through a period of rapid SP rise based on the growth in ARR, customer orders and receipts. Question is BCC past its inflection point?
Looking at the graphs the ATH ~.550 a few years ago now may have been that. Sentiment was high, growth tracking the predictions and BCC for a short while has captured market interest (volume up).
So where is BCC now and are we expecting SP catalysts other than quarterly reports that are painting a 'rosy' picture? Tbh I just don't know anymore. Sat market is becoming a hot market and I just do not get why an API-supported, affordable, product line that integrates well into fleet management and/or remote workers management is not flying off the shelves?
I see most of BCC's products now competing in the new-ish B2B space (for BCC), yet we have not seen much return, yet. This is the area that I think has the maximum potential impact on the SP performance atm. I.e. a big Defence Contract announcement or any other Gov Department.
TLDR: B2C not scaling up, B2B is the salvation.
2. Positive Cashflows - Much has been written about the positive cashflows and that Mr Market would take notice...it appears that Mr Market is looking the otherway, even when BCC telegraphed NPAT, EBITDA, Revenue records for this FY, the excitement was short lived.
Let see how we go with the upcoming FY reports/Statements, one would think that in this high interest environment businesses that are not reliant on credit would do well? Jury is still out on this one, selling the unprofitable growth dream (sexy) vs proven performance/capital discipline (unsexy).
Unsexy stuff does sell in bear markets, so perhaps BCC will do well out of the FY23 results.
TLDR: Pumping/selling the unattainable dream may be received better by the Mr Market than cash positive/capital disciplined results.
3. SP Performance - Well, numbers don't lie. BCC's ROI is well below index and well below the market. "SP Focus" announcement is somewhat reassuring but at this point I am not sure if I believe that BOD has any leverage to turn the SP downtrend around any time soon.
Overall folks, in my opinion it ain't looking pretty. I really want BCC to succeed, and there are quite a few positive developments, however there is also a massive cloud of uncertainty looming in the background.
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