Excellent quarterly and really hard to find a negative here despite the continued weak price action. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, continued operating performance will eventually see a re-rate. Put simply, if profits and cash keep rising and the SP stays the same or falls, then the valuation drops. At some stage, smart retail, funds and everyone else in between will see a compelling risk and reward and buy. This is where and when the thin liquidity will work in our favour.
Highlights for me include:
- Passing 5k ANZ Zoleo subscribers - a great 14% QoQ increase, which is more in line with what we need. While we won't get near the original forecast of 15k by FY23 year end, the strong hardware sales and order flows are translating to high margin subscribers, which essentially is the story for Zoleo. This proves up the thesis for me
- Cashflow was excellent. Management have guided in some investor forums that R&D has peaked, while inventory was at a peak level. This is now unwinding, which while in line with my expectations, will be observed by (new) investors through an increasing cash balance. As an example, at the 6 month mark our capitalised run rate per the 4C was $1.8m or $900k per quarter. At the March quarter, capitalised costs were $428k, which is is less than half of the previous quarter
- The bigger cash balance! Yes, we have the odd troll that comes in talking about a CR but outside of M&A, I'm only seeing a stronger balance sheet and as @septic1 pointed out, that was AFTER the pay down in the Roadpost loan. The EV continues to decline while profit increases!
I think if you watch the daily price action and try to monitor the depth you will send yourself crazy. It is meaningless unless you're close to buying/selling. BUT, if you change your lens and look at the actual numbers vs the market cap, that's when there's more clarity and that's where I feel more comfortable. $20m market cap for a conservative NPAT forecast of $2m and $3.6m in cash, which is growing.
Also, as another observation and one that has been totally ignored or at least not discussed at all from what I can see on this forum. The Zoleo JV has been written down to ZERO. At least for BCC, the ARR is $735k and at a super conservative guess for Roadpost, I'd say a combined subscription value would be A$5m. Before we all grab our pitchforks and discuss any inequity between BCC and Roadpost, have a think about what you'd value a telco with <2% churn and 50% of $5m ARR. Pick your own multiple, but even at a conservative 4x, that's $10m in an asset that has no value on the balance sheet. Plus factor in growth and you might see what I see. Take out the cash and you're basically getting the rest of the business for free. Food for thought.
Also, new PAC broker report below. Looks compelling![]()
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Last
13.0¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $11.23M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
13.0¢ | 13.0¢ | 13.0¢ | $3.88K | 29.84K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2500 | 12.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
13.0¢ | 30157 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2500 | 0.120 |
1 | 44000 | 0.115 |
2 | 77281 | 0.110 |
3 | 1005000 | 0.100 |
1 | 250000 | 0.093 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.130 | 30157 | 1 |
0.140 | 28920 | 2 |
0.145 | 96500 | 1 |
0.150 | 16767 | 1 |
0.155 | 30694 | 1 |
Last trade - 10.06am 17/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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