PFT

14.8%

2.3¢ pure foods tasmania limited

Hi Calach,Im interested to keep exploring that. I think the...

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Walkthewalk

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25/07/22

14:41

Post #: 62712388
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Originally posted by Calach: ↑

I cant answer with 100% certainty, but i think it boils down to economies of scale.

if we look at the Q3 4c, we have Revenue ot 2808, and Op Costs of 2136. Production costs are about 76% of revenue.

This Q its 2136 Revenue 1861 OpCost. Costs are 87% of revenue.

If we look at it incrementally, the cost to produce and sell the last 672 of product was 317 - costs are 47% of revenue.

If we work on an assumption that theres a fixed cost base and then every dollar of revenue incurs 50c of marginal cost, we can approximate the fixed cost at avout 800.

Calc:
Q3 rev = 2808, incremental cost =1404, fixed cost =2136-1404=732.
Q4 rev = 2136 inc cost =1068 fixed cost =1861-1068=793.

Differences can be explained due to inflation, cash flow not directly representing goods produced and a very simple model.

So using this as a baseline, if we can keep all other costs equal and double revenue, we will be cost neutral. If we increase by 200% we will be profitable at about 1m profit per quarter.

Can we increase revenue enough? Can we do it without also increasing our staff and marketing costs significantly? Can we do it without a decreasing margin due to inflation? Can we do it selling a luxury/premium product in an economy thats reducing discretionary spending due to recession and higher cost of living?

Id say the market thinks no currently. If we could do that, at current pricing we would have a P/E ratio of about 3.

Obviously a lot of assumptions, and estimations here but its interesting food for thought.

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Hi Calach,

Im interested to keep exploring that. I think the costs are not well matched/syncronised with sales which will confuse this. labour is more closley matched though.

But, the business has also increased sales by over 100% and it hasn't returned an improvement in costs. I fear that as they continue to scale they are doing the opposite. Corp and admin costs should have gone down as a % but they didn't. Smells of getting more management in to solve problems more easily solved with cost analysis.

PFT Price at posting: 21.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 2.3¢		Change -0.004(14.8%)		Mkt cap ! $2.808M

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Hi Calach,Im interested to keep exploring that. I think the...

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Hi Calach,Im interested to keep exploring that. I think the...

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