All the talk on distributions is premature.
There is no enforcement mechanism for ICSID or IDA to make Tanzania pay. The main reasons I have thought Tanzania would pay are:
- Attorney General gave an undertaking to pay, but this was a precondition for Tanzania to appeal case.
- World Bank funding- but if you read recent World Bank's and IMF reports they mention nothing about ICSID awards, noting Tanzania has a few outstanding.
- Confiscation of assets from state owned entities like Air Tanzania- but they no longer fly to jurisdictions where courts would be amenable to seizure as in Sweden.
I had previously bought in on the Attorney General undertaking but after looking into the quantum of funds and the fact they have other awards outstanding plus cases on foot, I think there is a high risk that after ICSID award Tanzania goes radio silence. I ended up exiting for a loss and wish holders well.
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