VWAP hovered around 15.5c last 3 trading days after bouncing off...

VWAP hovered around 15.5c last 3 trading days after bouncing off 14.5 support for a short while before that. volume very low still, looks like a continuation of the technical rerate after 2 months basing 11-13c range end '23. Low volumes suggest no insiders frontrunning material good news, and easy to walk price back up given sellers seem to be washed out by late last year.

Clearly Toliara approval is both the re-rate event and risk here. If those in the know are hearing positive reports from Rajoelina about resolving the situation, then path of least resistance and most value is up, albeit without a lot of confidence given his history of playing games and dragging approvals out. Given BSE signed an MOU around Easter 2022 but chose not to release that info to the market (while shares hit record highs on big volumes) I'm not expecting BSE to inform us that a deal looks imminent until the share price has forecast it first.

Not sure where 'fair value' of an expected deal or even actual done deal is, but it's certainly north of that 11-13c range. Being a binary gamble and given the damage to investor confidence Madagascar's last 4-5 years has done to Toliara, 'fair value' will be determined by the balance stale bulls exiting vs new bulls entering 'in volume' for some time to come imo...

GLTAH