Just a 'what if' here based on the 900m of gas shows, which will not play out as below, but it's nice to dream...
200kms X 900m (gas column) X .2 (porosity) X 35.3 (m3 to ft3) X 242 (gas expansion factor of 4,500 psi)
Makes assumptions of good gas, low Co2, N2, H2S and temp of ~100c..
Equals 307.5 Trillion cu.ft
If actual result was just 10% of this
If pressure was higher then expansion factor would be higher. These types of depth would expect 6,000psi+ using other locations as examples...
Now if it was light oil.... all 900m, ridiculous number, as in as big as ghawar.. If just 1% of that 900m was light oil, still is a couple of billion barrels.
Because no-one has ever drilled this basin before, the possibilities are still wide open. No wonder there were plenty of willing buyers this morning for all the panicky selling from retail.
$250M Mcap for 80% of entire basin. Come back in a decade and there will be dozens of producing wells throughout the basin with annual turnover of billions of dollars, IMHO.
With each metre drilled they learn a lot more about the ground and contents, all unknown until Mukuyu 1. Now they know more and can adjust accordingly for the sidetrack and all future wells.
My basic premise here is that the world would not have the hydrocarbons we have been using for 100 years if basins with good source rocks, good porosity, good sealing structures and lovely anticlines were low probability for actual oil and gas. Of course any one trap could have leaked out, but overall there are thousands of sedimentary basins that have accumulations of O&G.
With 900m of gas shows the odds of no flowing hydrocarbons given all the characteristics released so far, like fluorescence, high background levels of gas etc, must be fairly low. Surely it's now a matter of when we get the word discovery, not if..
I'm quite content to hold, it's a game where a lot of patience is needed. The benefits to the locals of anything here is going to be immense, likewise for shareholders/owners of the basin. Why miss out because it will take a bit longer??
