@Tobybreslin firstly, for what its worth…if DRE is your first...

@Tobybreslin firstly, for what its worth…if DRE is your first foray into exploration companies, then you have picked well imo!

In terms of the potential ‘commercial outcomes possible for DRE over the next few years’…that is a very challenging question, and is difficult to try and answer succinctly…there are so many variables and unknows, every scenario is full of relatively early assessments or total assumptions and can be met with plenty of…‘what if’ statements.
It also depends on your definition of ‘commercial outcome’ do you mean in the strictest sense of DRE becoming a producer and turning a profit, or a loose definition that considers overall company valuation and share price appreciation over the next three or so years…. realistically both are difficult options to address without some degree of crystal-ball gazing.

I guess my first suggestion would be to take note of Deans more recent presentations, webinars, and announcements, ultimately DT and the BOD are the ones that are going to determine the path DRE takes and this can be used to get an idea what outcomes might be possible. They have already given strong indications that they intend to put the company in a position to evaluate the REE production potential….and have taken the necessary steps to start this process…delivering maiden MRE, producing an exploration target, and committing to an aggressive drilling campaign to further evaluate the resource growth potential.
Given the aggressive drilling campaign it goes without saying that by the end of the year we will be in a much better position to determine what the general outlook on the REE's are and therefore the direction DRE might take..ie full steam ahead into scoping studies or lets focus on something else.....or somewhere in between.
Regardless of exploration success between now and the end of the year...personally I don’t see a scenario whereby DRE get to production status in ~3 years…that’s just my view. Yes there are other examples (different commodity) in WA where it has happened in that timeframe, SIR-Nova and SFR-DeGrussa...but these are two exceptions, certainly not the norm. DRE can get some leverage by following the pathway paved by HAS next door...which will help to some degree. But clearly the more exploration success the easy certain decision points become.

Which leads into my second point…any eventual commercial outcomes will invariably be underpinned by the asset quality...including (but not limited to) grade, tonnage, depth, geometry, mineralogy (economic and gangue) etc so trying to make an informed view on that and the implications for mining, comminution, processing, and recoveries is important.
So to that point, there are some good discussions, thoughts and information raised here on HC by many knowledgeable posters in previous threads. So, plenty of reading if you have the time as many of these topics have been discussed. Especially the fundamentals of the geology right through to the nitty gritty technical and economic factors around development and REE production…as well as the apparent and potential challenges that DRE will likely be faced with if that’s the direction they take. Irrespective of posters sentiment or disclosure status… these technical details MATTER, so I would recommend looking though some of that material. How you interact with that information, the weighting you assign to it, or how it fits in the bigger DRE picture is ultimately an individual choice and most importantly dyor.
Anyway....that is all without even considering DRE on its fundamentals as an explorer and the other projects!
I know that hasn't really addressed the crux of your question....but all I can say is ...it depends.