I see that GS has raised their PT to $3.65, predicated on some...

I see that GS has raised their PT to $3.65, predicated on some of the most ridiculous assumptions I have ever seen.
eg:
1. 40% discount PE (why? Literally the best performing company in one of the best performing industries in lockdown should be on a 40% discount)
2. Gross sales of 425m
Well FY contribution from Mocka + the 12m in revenue extra that has already been booked this year would mean that for the rest of the financial year, Adairs would have to do WORSE than FY19. I rate the probability of this occurring as zero.

EBITDA somehow magically being only 3M higher than last year. Again, how can this possibly occur? We know they receive 11m Jobkeeper for the next quarter and only Victorian stores are stood down at worst for the time being.

The only way this happens is if there are rolling lockdowns through the whole of Australia and New Zealand for much of the year and/or the economy falls off a precipice.

My own back of the envelope calculations suggest:
- Mocka ~100m (Aus 75m, NZ 25m) - EBIT 20m
- Store sales 320m
—> this needs a bit of explanation. We know that stores are up 15-20% in first 5 weeks of FY20 already, but that is cycling off a base of H1 which was unaffected by Covid. Sure Vic will be closed for 6 weeks, but Adairs is more than that. Anyway back working it out suggests about 340m (which seems high so I knocked 20m off)
- Adairs online 130m
—> I’ve used a 40% growth rate here (slightly more than the growth rate pre-Covid of 30% and well under the current run rate of 100%).

I think they will get 15% blended EBIT margins as they keep negotiating hard on rentals and I am adding back Jobkeeper separately. You can clearly see from the presentation that as a channel rents are still too high. This gives me EBIT of 83. I think Jobkeeper this FY will be an approx 8(Adairs)/3(staff) split gives an EBIT closer to 90m.

Again pretty keen for someone to point out where I’m wrong with my calculations but there is still a pretty hefty margin of safety when there is a pretty obviously foreseeable situation gives a 30% higher revenue than anticipated an EBIT almost 50% higher than a broker target which is well north of the current share price that is also arguing for a 40% PE discount to peers...

Would love to see if @daicosisgod or @Klogg have better numbers than me here..