Following on from your (and@hankreardon's) idea that the money to be made is in PE expansion... One could argue the best way to realise 'shareholder value' (if you used Market Cap as realising shareholder value) is to spin-off Mocka. It's essentially a smaller, but more profitable version of TPW. Once that's realised, a 30* PE could easily be assigned to Mocka. At $12m EBIT (roughly $8.5m PAT), the valuation would look something like $260m for Mocka alone.
If you used a TPW-like valuation of 80 times EBIT.... well, the number is an absurdly large $960m. (Relative valuation alone has some very obvious flaws...)
The remainder of ADH, generating $30m odd before tax (whether or not that's undercooked, i'll let you decide), would still attract a 15-18 times multiple. Market cap ~$352m (using 16x PAT).
While this exercise is largely theoretical, you can contrast todays Market Cap of $385m to the combined MC above of $612m (using the more reasonable price for Mocka) - there's still a fair amount of upside. And none of this caters for the tailwinds surviving retailers should see (namely lower rents and greater choice with store locations), nor the improved cash flow from DC changes, or even international expansion.
Or maybe I'm just fooling myself by telling a story to justify greater upside... We'll find out soon enough.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- ADH
- Ann: ADH Trading Update and FY20 Group Sales Guidance
Ann: ADH Trading Update and FY20 Group Sales Guidance, page-18
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 26 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add ADH (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$2.12 |
Change
0.080(3.92%) |
Mkt cap ! $370.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.03 | $2.12 | $2.02 | $1.162M | 555.6K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 4191 | $2.10 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.13 | 2500 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 4191 | 2.100 |
3 | 3273 | 2.090 |
2 | 2986 | 2.080 |
1 | 1080 | 2.070 |
1 | 1080 | 2.060 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.130 | 2500 | 1 |
2.140 | 1002 | 1 |
2.150 | 1002 | 1 |
2.160 | 1002 | 1 |
2.170 | 1002 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 06/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ADH (ASX) Chart |