The answer is no one knows. Most businesses are people...

The answer is no one knows. Most businesses are people businesses and the accounts flourish when the right people are doing the right things with the right intent. If you hear the way these guys speak, they seem to really try to understand their customer and try to be responsive to the customer’s needs and I think fundamentally, that is the only way any business can flourish over the long term. They have made mistakes, as we all do, but I think if the intent and structures are in place to correct course, the longer term outcomes have every chance to be good.

I personally have very rarely found anecdotal information helpful, except as a starting point for further research* Whenever I have relied upon anecdotal information, I have usually made errors- largely because of sampling bias.

My current observation is that:
- there seems to be some controversy around 2 recently acquired discount competitors in voluntary administration regarding handling of unsecured creditors, which I think is going to be a net benefit to businesses that treat all players in the ecosystem with respect.
- the numbers I am tracking suggest that Adairs & Mocka have gained market share, currently (as has TPW FWIW).
- I don’t foresee a lot of new competition in this space right now

Overall, as with any downturn, the survivors tend to do better over the course of the next cycle (as long as the advantage is not whittled away).

*Generations of my extended family have been customers for decades now, so I certainly see the brand quality acutely. Hopefully they can also be stockholders for the same duration!