Ann: ADH Trading Update and Stores Re-opening, page-78

"it doesn’t seem right to me"

You're right. The problem with my calculation was to subtract $5m leave provisions after May 4th (although I wrote otherwise). This is wrong - it's likely most, if not all leave was used.
I also used 80%, not 85% on Jobkeeper figures.

Re-calculating:
Net debt May 4th: $43m
+$4m rental backpay
-$7.7m PAT (using ~$10m PBT)
-$10.4m JK incl. Apr/May/Jun
= $28.6m

Then the business gets another ~$18m JK free-kick. If they paid no dividends, they'd be debt free by mid 1H21 at a guess.

Your profit figures are slightly higher than mine, and your rental arrears slightly lower.
I'm also using PAT, which arguably isn't right. Tax won't be paid immediately.

Take the midpoint of ~$25m net debt end of year. At ~$300m MC, that's $325m EV.
EBIT of $40m (which is doable) means this is on 8* EV/EBIT. Then there are DC improvements to be made...

In a few years time, even the current price will result in a net yield of ~8% in my mind.