I think Canaccord have dropped the ball with the ~300ktpa SC5.5...

I think Canaccord have dropped the ball with the ~300ktpa SC5.5 calculation in their base case. I know they want to be conservative but I don't see how this figure is justifiable.

We know Renard was upgraded by Stornoway and can actually handle 2.6mtpa throughput, which they achieved in 2019. But let's use the 2.2mtpa from its original design as Canaccord surely has.

The first (i.e. 0-50m depth) tonnage is 22.7mt @ 1.3%

The missing figure is recovery, and for only 300ktpa SC5.5 to be produced, that would be 58% (!)

That doesn't seem remotely consistent with what metallurgical testwork suggests. (See below.)

Instead, for the first 10 years of mining the shallow parts of the main zone, I think we could expect something in the 70-75% range for SC6, and slightly higher for SC5.5. That changes project economics significantly.

e.g.
2.2mtpa feed @ 1.3% grade and 73% recovery = 380ktpa SC5.5
or
2.6mtpa feed @ 1.3% grade and 73% recovery = 450ktpa SC5.5

(Note that WR1 included 5% host rock in these met samples, which makes the HLS recoveries seem lower than those of companies which don't do this, like PMET.)