Hello everyone,
I am new to investing but picked up AHZ as my first stock on ASX last year after a good look at the company profile their products and the possibilities in the future. Its probably already been discussed.
I think today's results of phase 2a trial are as good as Genocea's phase 2 results, if not better. Genocea are already in phase 2b and planning phase 3.
One thing about statistics - Statistics are like bikinis they hide more than they reveal.
I am posting the summary of two
Summary of Reported Clinical Endpoint Data (Genocea)
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
| 1 |
Secondary clinical endpoint |
Placebo(n=44) |
60/50(n=43) |
60/75(n=44) |
|
|
|
| 2 |
Mean genital lesion rate (percent of days with lesions over 6 months)[/B] |
7.9 |
% |
4.5 |
% |
4.6 |
% |
| 3 |
p-value versus placebo(1) |
NA |
0.03 |
|
0.03 |
|
|
| 4 |
Mean duration of recurrences (days) |
4.8 |
|
3.3 |
|
4.3 |
|
| 5 |
p-value versus placebo(1) |
NA |
0.01 |
|
0.64 |
|
|
| 6 |
Mean number of recurrences over 6 months |
2.7 |
|
2.1 |
|
1.9 |
|
| 7 |
p-value versus placebo(1) |
NA |
0.08 |
|
0.02 |
|
|
| 8 |
Kaplan-Meier estimate of percent recurrence free after first dose |
10 |
% |
29 |
% |
31 |
% |
| 9 |
p-value versus placebo(2) |
NA |
0.03 |
|
0.03 |
|
|
| 10 |
Kaplan-Meier estimate of percent recurrence free after last dose |
13 |
% |
22 |
% |
36 |
% |
| 11 |
p-value versus placebo(2) |
NA |
0.17 |
|
0.02 |
|
|
Now AHZ HSV trial
The vaccine to placebo number is 3:1 , n= 44 .(while Genocea had 2:1 n=131)
Percentage of subjects with no outbreaks post vaccination in the vaccine group (29.4% n= 10) compared to the placebo group (10.0% n=1) (Genocea has similar numbers but their sample size is better so it was statistically significant)
Time to first recurrence - vaccine vs placebo is 6.6 months vs 1.2 months. (This is presented differently in Genocea data as percentage of days with lesions over 6 months)
Significant difference in number of CD4 and CD8 cells for vaccine subjects compared to the same cell types in placebo subjects
Virus shedding of almost 60% in cohort 1.(This is going to be the preferred mode of vaccination)
I feel Genocea just presented the data better and had the numbers (may be a better planned study). They would still need to replicate all that in their phase III to be commercially viable.
AHZ 2b trial is definitely a success and I think they are right to go for 2b and subsequently phase III.
Its all together a different question regarding the funding and the time required for these trials.
I invested in AHZ looking at the ADAPT technology. Its just a matter of time before this novel glutaraldehyde free, prion free patch is going be a disruptive candidate in the field of tissue repair market.
GLTA.
(20min delay)