Hi Rick,
I know you have been around for a while, and although our thread has turned into a 'Hyenas Feeding Ground' and there is not much benefit in trying to set a lot of the comments straight that have sprouted here since the VA, but happy to share my view with you and others who might be interested.
My thinking assumes that MC and the A40 BoD have no dirty laundry that will surface, but considering to date there has been no action taken by the VA towards MC and the BoD ie no criminal charges, I choose to assume they have acted above board.
here are some of the very obvious points:
$100mil+ owed to creditors (Claimed)
More than 1/2 of that amount will be owed to creditors who are claiming the full sum, even for work which has not been provided therefore creating a bit of a muddy view, I still maintain that ~$40mil to repay GXY and another ~$20mil to repay staff and running costs for next 6 months whilst on C&M
will be more than enough.
We still have stockpile which can be sold and generate some more income, and Jiangte will need some more spod very shortly unless they are willing to buy from elsewhere but as I understand each plant is fine-tuned to a certain concentrate and it's characteristics, therefore not an easy task.
MC and BoD to blame for everything
If all other Li plays would be doing really well, then the above statement would be hards to defend, but we all know there is not one Li play returning multi bags to its investors ATM.
It is more a case that we all got played by the Chinese and I for one
blame myself for ignoring the signs that we are approx 12months to early.
If Burwill would not have gone bust and keept on paying for our contracted price everyone would be worshipping MC...but, unfortunately, most investors need someone to blame and choose to ignore a lot of the circumstances leading to a certain outcome.
Thinking that MC and the BoD separated COW just for the fun of it
MC and Co knew very well of the real threat that GXY or any other Co is to TAW at the time and that we where at least 12 months away of implementing the remainder of our business plan:
* Complete Fines
* Increase Resource
* Sign up new offtake
* Hit the main ore body/ reduce the strip ratio
MC and Co were well aware and another proof that they were trying to stay one step ahead was that they contacted our administrator well b4 Tribecca pulled the plug and GXY was surprisingly ready to come to the rescue instantly
IMO GXY thought they can swing it but MC was not ready to play and now GXY most likely will either have to pay a lot more than originally offered or will miss out...BH is only worth an LT investment if COWis included, for anyone doubting this, pls look at the tenement boundaries for confirmation...MC one step ahead.
Why do I think there is a better offer
MC and the BoD have their majority of shares for FREE, therefore if they were not >90% certain of closing a better deal than what GXY offered they would ave take it and cashed in their chips, this point also strengthens my view that there is no 'Dirty Laundry' if there was MC and Co would have taken the deal and run.
Why do I think punters mentioning $40-$100mil for BH have no clue or are just trying to swing the mood of investors and of potential buyers of BH
* This current low is just a bottleneck and once spread over the next 20years will be of little consequence
* It takes a lot of money and time (little more than $100mil
) to establish a resource and to build a mine
* It is a well-acknowledged that the BH ore is amongst the best
* Electrification of Transportation and Energy Storage is not a bubble, but we are at the bottom of a very steep uptake curve.
* Too much money has already been committed by car manufactures into EV's...once the production lines open up and the supply chains get established, the prices of EV's will come down substantially...~2000 parts (ICE) vs ~200 parts (EV)...the gap is simply too great.
* Governments will be forced to act, climate change believer or not, the fact that millions of ppl around the world are affected by emissions and thousands are dying from them every year and millions need regular medical attention, costing gov millions of $.
* Energy Efficiency of EV vs ICE....5miles/1kwh vs 1mile/kwh...and the efficiency will still improve for EVs as for ICE's it's almost as good as technically possible...then there is the reduced service and running costs...basically the financial and environmental gains are too big to ignore, that is why we see $billions being spent/invested NOW.
In short, any potential buyer for BH will know all the above and will not be too concerned with this short term bottleneck issues, they know that say even $300mil for BH would have been a bargain 2yrs ago and they will know that it will likely be a bargain in 2years time...we can use WES as a guide, they didn't invest that kind of money into KDR for todays value. And I am convinced there are many other big players out there that will run the rule over BH, considering it's the only producing mine with uncommitted, high-quality Li, and any new supply is years away.
Jiangxi
They will need more shipments soon and their next production line should be close to commencing production, so will need even more spod.
So they are the wild card and it will come down to how they see the importance of continuing feeding their plant with BH spod, if indeed there are benefits in them feeding with high-quality spod and judging by their large monetary investment in the past and the lucrative JV offer to A40 and judging by all the other very large $ investments by converters into miners, long term supply security seems to be very important, if you get quality spd as well, that seems to be a nice bonus.
So if BH is of importance to them...then COW is a must for long term supply planing...MC and Co one step ahead.
All IMO
