NPV of $16.33 per share on current reserves only - approx 10 years
NPV of $20.71 per share on running the mill at 1.3Mt for 15 years
NPV of $9.21 per share on running the mill at 1.3Mt for just 5 years
NPV of $13.12 per share on running the mill at 900kt for 10 years
Thing with NPV calculations is that because future cash flows are discounted if revenue build up is delayed and upfront costs are added it destroys your NPV outcome. By delaying the ramp up to full production until 2027 andadding significant capital costs up front so they can start mining from the bottom of the resource and mine up(wt?), the financial metrics are turned on their head.
If we continue on our current ramp up without even expanding the processing beyond the no cost improvement of 1Mtpa we are far far better off.
To arrive at my NPV calculations I used the information provided in the DPM proposal as the basis of my modelling. I then tested the model and came out with a 5% NPV of $1.56B using DPN cost and revenue data. Close enough to use it as the basis for some scenario testing.
I did use stronger silver and gold pricing: Gold $3200 this year rising to $5,000 in 2029. Silver $35 this year rising to $45 in 2027. Higher but not excessive in my opinion.
Tell me what number you want the NPV to be and by moving the ramp up of revenue back and forth and changing the upfront capital costs I can make it that number.
....and if you give me this information a few days before the announcement I can get the share price to the number that makes it all seem perfectly reasonable.
I vote we stick with the current plans.![]()
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