bear2aid - I have to totally agree. Unless Nyrstar are going to wait until the last minute to roll out a blockbuster offer its seems that they are only interested in picking up CBH at a price that doesn't take into account the future prospects of the company. Their participation has however encouraged Toho to offer more for an increased stake which does benefit us as shareholders, so good on them for that. I for one would be happy to take 30 cents for a portion of my holding and hold the rest. Still, you can't really blame Nyrstar for trying to pick up an asset at a bargain price, but they can't expect to succeed.
For additional reading, here is an article from the latest issue of UK moneyweek magazine:
"Zinc is something of a forgotten metal, writes Tom Bulford. It doesnt have the glamour of gold. And it lacks the widespread application of copper. But that will change over the next five or six years. Year by year, the level of supply from the worlds zinc mines is dropping. According to
Credit Suisse, this year supply and demand for zinc will be pretty well balanced but by 2016 this balance will disappear. Credit Suisse expects global demand to be 16.6mt. But the worlds mines will only be able to
produce 10.2mt.
The zinc supply story is easy to understand. Existing mines are gradually working out their resources and few new ones are planned. Although the climate for mining ventures is recovering from the dark days of the credit crunch, mining executives are still reluctant to commit to new projects. As a result, says Credit Suisse, CEOs will probably need to see a significant price spike to agree to fund them.
But the real cause of the future mismatch between supply and
demand is the demand side. Today, China uses a huge amount
of steel to the benefit of Australian iron ore and coal
exporters. But it does not use nearly as much zinc. In fact, relative to the developed world, it uses about half
as much zinc per ton of steel. This is because steel is typically used in construction projects. Zinc, on the
other hand, is used for those essential consumer goods that only become commonplace when a society reaches a certain level of affluence. For this reason, zinc is known as a late-cycle metal, coming behind the steel used for the buildings and the copper used for the pipes.
But China has now reached a point where it has to have this
late-cycle metal. Its population wants what the West has had for years fashion, education, cars and washing machines. At whatever cost to the environment, zinc is set to be torn from the ground and used to give the worlds new middle classes the things they crave. This should be a powerful investment case."
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