Assuming average quarterly inflows during FY17 of $75m which is lower than FY16 and a 5% lift in starting FUM from market movement during the year, average FUM for FY17 could be around $1,750m. If the current split between managed fund/super stays the same the average revenue margin will sit at around 1.395% so management fee revenue of $24.4m for the year.
Member fees from super clients along with interest gadds another $3m or so revenue.
I understand expense growth of 8% over FY16 is a reasonable assumption so I'm working on $19m.
For H1 16 the tax rate was 34%. I expect over time it will move towards 30% as some of the non-deductible expenses fall away but sticking with the 34% tax rate and you have potential NPAT of 5.5m.
Plenty of assumptions there but I don't think any of them are too unreasonable
AEF Price at posting:
$85.50 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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