Ann: Africa Down Under Presentation, page-32

I was looking into Yellow Phosphorus (P4) and found a current price graph.




https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/yellow-phosphorus-price-index/

The rest of that webpage also gives a nice summary/outline on Yellow Phosphorus.

Current world price of P4 is around $4000USD/ton, (prices vary across locations). For instance, it's currently $5000USD/ton in Europe, $3200 in China, (it was $5000/ton in China 12 months ago).

Both previous MNB announcements regarding P4 make mention of Europe. There is this from last weeks announcement:



Do your own research, do not rely on this research/assumptions.

Quick search online shows that Yellow Phosphorus takes around 13-15000kwh of electricity per tonne to produce.




The syndicate are targeting 20,000t/pa of Yellow Phosphorus.





20000 tons could require 260-300MWh. Angola's cheap power prices, I'll use 2c/kwh here (you could use higher or lower), means it would only cost roughly $6million USD in power input (300Mwh) to produce 20,000 tons on P4.

20000t of P4 sold at $4000/t USD is $80million USD.

Further to that, quick research shows that it takes 9-10tonnes of Phosphate Rock ore to produce 1tonnes of Yellow Phosphorus.



Amount obviously varies depending on the phosphate content of the rock.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8074320/#:~:text=In%20industrial%20production%2C%20this%20process,8%E2%80%9310%20t%20of%20YPS

More in depth, this NCBI research document mentions when using a lower/medium grade phosphate rock ore with Phosphate content of 22.57% (which is ballpark around what MNB lower/medium grade phosphate will be) 1t of yellow phosphate requires 9.5t of phosphate rock.




.

If they need 9.5t of phosphate rock to produce 1t of yellow phosphate, to make 20000t/pa of Yellow Phosphorus, they could need approximately 190,000t of Rock Phosphate. I'd say the exact amount of Rock Phosphate needed corresponds to the exact phosphate content of the rock, but everywhere I look points to around the 9-10t mark.



The 100,000t/pa off-take with the syndicate investors was announced over a year ago. Since then they've further specified a P4 production plant targeting a production of 20,000t/pa.

If rock phosphate input requirements are indeed 9-10ton for every 1 ton of yellow phosphorus produced, then long term offtake of rock phosphate (if they're targeting a production rate of 20,000t/pa of Yellow Phosphorus) with Minbos could end up growing from the initial 100,000t/pa.

The lower grade phosphate ore they want to utilise to make P4 probably wouldn't fetch the current World Bank price of USD $346/t. Not going to try and guess the market rates, but it would have to be lower than $346/t due to the lower grading.

Again, do your own research, none of this is financial advice, do not rely on these figures or assumptions when making decisions. Just chucking on the forum what I came across when searching for the rough P4 production inputs, costs and prices, and happy to be corrected on them.

Patiently waiting for further news flow.