I think a lot are reading too much into the comments on Sunbird....

I think a lot are reading too much into the comments on Sunbird. Whilst I would love there to be some conspiracy occurring and Sunbird is a monster, there is no reason to believe that.

The comments in the presentation are just what they are.

"Commercial-sized oil prospects can be pursued now that data on source rocks, timing, etc. has been recovered"

They didn't spend the best part of $100m to drill a well that would show them where to drill. They drilled because this was a good spot to drill BUT as they had no well data to cross reference with the seismic the geological COS was low. They can use the well data from Sunbird now and recalibrate their subsurface model, which should increase the chance of finding a commercial discovery.

Whilst seismic is very important, drilling in an area with very few wells and I think none in the reef plays in East Africa then seismic is a lot of guess work. Once they have well data then refinement of this is huge. I'm always surprised to see holders comment that companies are "still: reviewing well results. They take way more than a few days or weeks to fully review and refine subsurface models. Even when its just 3D seismic they take months to review so why think this is any different when you drill a well. All the assumptions used in the original review of that seismic need to be reconsidered as there is further data to cross reference.

This is a common occurrence after any well, but particularly when you have a failed well, as clearly the subsurface is not what you thought it was from the seismic, so you need to recalibrate a lot of assumptions that go into your model.

I'm still confident in PCL's future but there is a lot of talk about conspiracies on very little information. BG have kept a tight well, they are a big enough company to not have to declare the results immediately, so likely they are wanting to finalise their analysis before releasing the data. Why release it early when your review could contradict your earlier release (and its happened in the past with smaller companies).

Very bullish with Kenya and Namibia but we have to accept that Sunbird is not the company maker. Note, though the comment about "not commercial at this location". They clearly have an oil discovery, how big, we will find out in time, but its possible that they felt this was the best location to intersect the target reservoirs, but the well data could suggest there is a more optimal point elsewhere, so Sunbird is not finished and could well be redrilled in the future.