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Dr.Bull

638 Posts.

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15/01/20

16:50

Post #: 42397615
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Originally posted by FeelLikeARookie: ↑

This is the executive summary of the report I was able to pull from my CommSec account.

"In summary, we make the following key points:

Customer additions and GMV could exceed our 1H20 estimates by around 10%.
Based on APT’s latest disclosure for trading to end of November 2019 and latest app download data for December, we believe that APT’s customer base at 31 December 2019 could have reached close to 7.2mn globally (+11% vs GSe of 6.6mn). Furthermore, Gross Merchandise Value (“GMV”) could be around A$4.8bn for 1H20E given APT’s disclosure of A$3.7bn to 30 November 2019 (+9% vs GSe of A$4.3bn).

Net Transaction Profit (NTP) Margins could also be a positive surprise.
At its AGM update, APT indicated that NTP Margins were trending in line with FY19. This implies a NTP Margin of 2.3% vs. our GMV FY20E of 1.8%. Combined with the potential upside to merchant sales in 1H, this could represent an NTP Contribution upside of A$25mn (i.e. a ~50bps potential beat at the NTP Margin X a ~A$500mn beat in GMV could provide a A$25mn beat or +68% above our current 1H20 NTP Contribution assumption of A$78.1mn).

But strong seasonality of Nov/Dec holds us back from FY20E estimate changes at this stage.
Although customer numbers, GMV and NTP Contribution for 1H20E are likely to exceed our forecasts, we make no changes to our FY20 estimates at this stage given the upside is being driven by a very strong seasonal contribution in the US market specifically. This may result in relatively much softer trends in January/February 2020 relative to November/December 2019; hence we believe it too early to capitalise this potential upside until we can more clearly observe customer addition trends through the March 2020 quarter. Furthermore, we anticipate NTP Margins for November and December 2019 are likely to be lower than they may have been for the July to October 2019 period to take into account higher default rates with the seasonally strong sales."

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One more question, i've noticed they do business updates every year in January around the 16th or 18th of Jan.. has this been cancelled, moved to another date or even been completed via the last announcement about black friday sales?

Last edited by Dr.Bull: 15/01/20

APT Price at posting: $32.80 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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