AYS 0.00% 21.0¢ amaysim australia limited

What has the operator EBITDA margin got to do with the M&A value...

  1. 36 Posts.
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    What has the operator EBITDA margin got to do with the M&A value of Amaysim? When Amaysim has an ARPU of 20$ p.m. and a gross income of 7$ p.m. then Optus will pay a multiple on the 13$ difference. Any other acquirer will pay a multiple on 20$, but only after anticipating a massive churn and execution risks related to customer migration across networks. Only Amaysim ARPU + gross margin matter! If a potential acquirer has 30% or 50% margin is insignificant.

    Anyhow, all that is not relevant today. Nobody acquired Amaysim. This may happen or this may not happen. Next similar event that will likely improve margins is wholesale tender, but a couple of years away. Therefore I expect Amaysim to trade as a going concern, so maybe there is some downside.

    Also maybe you did not follow the Amaysim story from the start. The adventure into energy did by no means fail due to regulatory changes. If the gross margin in energy was 28% or 24% was not determining success. Klick was acquired due to "tremendous cross-selling potential" and the outlook of an ARPU of 200$ p.m., when combining mobile, DSL and power. And exactly this was a near 100% fail, and I assume it could be anticipated as the combination of an easy and honest product (mobile) with a complex and cheat product (power) was never going to work.

    With the synergy case being a complete fail and more recently margins in the power business decreasing, I assume Amaysim was under pressure to divest, but quickly realized original price expectations could not be met.

    As a result, they had to add "on the move", a small but very valuable asset to the divestment basket. I would not be surprised, if they got a very significant share of their mobile customers via this business in the past...



 
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