Operator margin becomes relevant in considering a switch to...

Operator margin becomes relevant in considering a switch to Vodafone.

From Optus POV I agree with you. They would ideally only want to consider the additional margin Amaysim makes.

However, from Vodafone's POV, why wouldn't you spend $250m (EV) to buy $40m of EBITDA, and at the same time take >$21m off your competitor?

The other option for Vodafone would be to offer a better MSA than Optus. The risk of that would be almost entirely borne by Amaysim -- they stand to lose customers in the churn so there would need to be a significant margin improvement for it to be appealing to Amaysim as a standalone continuing business.

The migration risk for Vodafone in an ownership situation is something that's been handled before. TPG migrated 100k+ customers from Optus to Vodafone previously, and did it well. This was noted on the 21 August 2020 TPG results call when Nick Harris of Morgans asked if iiNet's MVNO users were still on Optus and if they would be migrated to VHA.

For what it's worth, I have followed the Amaysim story since before IPO and until recently been very bearish on the business because they were being squeezed from both sides. Their wholesale price is set by Optus (obviously with some negotiation) and their revenue is dictated by the market. I never bought the AYS growth story previously because I felt they paid too much for the previously acquired subscriber bases. I never bought the Click cross-selling story because it's something that lots of businesses try but very few succeed at. Kogan is one of the rare exceptions.

You can find me previously rubbishing AYS on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/goosmurf/status/1100194494056562688

But I think the situation has changed now partly because of the TPG/Voda merger, and because the mobile market is generally back in a price increase cycle, led by Telstra and soon to be followed by Optus.

As a continuing operation I would love to see their CPA continue to decrease but I think it's bearable given market dynamics.