Let's hope you're right here. The gap between going concern...

Let's hope you're right here. The gap between going concern valuation and the M&A 'premium' or game theory premium is about as large as I've ever seen for a business. Your logic is sound, albeit plenty of people have lost plenty of money hoping for an acquisition...

Click was a great sale, they probably overpaid at $120m as part of their laughable failed 'cross sell' strategy (the 2018 investor presentations are hard to read in hindsight given the wholesale destruction of shareholder value - devices, broadband, energy...), though with new regulation and likely bad debts incoming, getting over $100m was a fantastic result in my view, albeit EBITDA / margins didn't have any corporate cost allocation based on the Mobile numbers noted below. Plenty still to come out of the woodwork prior to completion though - what happened with amaysim energy and subscription energy - wasn't that the next big thing? Also, huge working capital adjustments still to flow through, the out of the money hedge of $29m could come out of the sale price and be a huge reduction to amaysim's net cash on settlement, hopefully bad debts are pushed out beyond settlement otherwise this could also negatively impact the outcome.

This sale does however show the potential value of a customer base to a potential acquirer (i.e. TPG or Optus), and the same logic applies for the Mobile business (I don't agree with your numbers necessarily, though directionally your analysis is right).

As a going concern however, this mobile business is a shocker - it only makes $9.5m in EBITDA??? They only got a good sale price on the energy business as the mobile is left with all of the eye-watering corporate costs which is nearly $70m. The 4-person management team got over $7m in pay - for a business that got thrown out of the ASX300 following years of dreadful performance. Zero accountability here, they are all on over $1m a year! Scary. How shareholders are accepting of that is beyond me.