Ann: AGL: Enters binding agreement to acquire Click Energy Group, page-27

Let me start with the largest error: You claim that from an operator perspective "The incremental cost of serving AYS subscribers is close to zero" and "The economics of mobile networks are very similar to software vendors". This is entirely incorrect. Mobile operators do have huge amounts of variable costs: for every (non-intranet) minute (an old or new) customer phones, the operator has to pay an interconnect fee to the receiving network operator (be it mobile or wireline) and for every text and kilobyte of mobile internet usage similar charges arise. Your notion of zero incremental costs wrongly implies the absence of variable costs. In reality, a typical, mature and pure-play mobile operator has a gross margin of about 65-70%. Look at any US, European or Asian operator, if you doubt. 30-35% costs of sales mean that every incremental subscriber with an incremental ARPU of, say, 30$ p.m. leads to an increase of (variable) cost of 9-11$ p.m.

As a result of this consideration I continue to regard your "total EBITDA" estimate of 80-90m as too high by a large margin.

Additionally I would like to comment on the six other points:

1) Amaysim is not "the industry". Look at Vod, Telstra, the EBITDA of basically all operators is under pressure - easy to find out.
2) Every dollar can only be spent once. When an industry needs to spent billions to roll-out a new technology, it has less money for anorganic growth - pretty trivial.
3) Does not make any sense. Rolling out 5G and M&A are two different things. If there is a correlation, then a negative one.
4) In real life, own valuation influences a target's valuation to a great extent. Many CEOs won't buy a company at 7x, if there own valuation is 5x, calling it valuation dilution. This does make sense, when the acquisition is paid in shares: who want's to pay with an undervalued currency?
5) The low-value/high risk of Amaysim's customer does not necessarily prevent a take-over, but it massively influences the price an acquirer is willing to pay.
6) Migrating customers across networks is always risky, in particular those who can cancel every day. I have not been in the TPG call, in which they mentioned that the migration of the iinets mobile subs went well. But what did they actually say? Did they mention the churn or how many millions of retention money they spent? Also, were these real subscribers (term contracts) or the fugitive, more prepaid-style customers Amaysim has?