Hi Borano, General uncertainty is high (macro, US tightening...

Hi Borano,

General uncertainty is high (macro, US tightening cycle, RBA tightening cycle) and its mid year. As a result volumes are light, especially ahead of US rates decision this week. The market was sideways and uninspired today.

CRN uncertainty is also high as they are looking to buy more mines which brings the risk of overpaying and the need to issue equity. To keep M&A optionality they have backed off the dividends, so that has changed my thesis for owning this stock. Disappointing. This means a lot of CRN buyers hold off and people who lose patience drive the price lower on light volume. Patience is valuable is this situation and I expect it will be rewarded in coming quarters. Personal view, not advice!

CRN can improve certainty by announcing they are not buying assets in Australia and give a trading update about what I expect is growing demand offshore.

If pricing gets really crazy on the BHP assets, maybe they sell Curragh to whoever buys Blackwater and focus on the US where coal investment is welcomed and treated fairly.

Thanks for the charts @slick, it does feel there is a more solid bid tone in the last few sessions.