Ann: AGM Addresses and Slides, page-9

Risks
- are their automated credit checks appropriate (not tested in a high rate and potentially credit stressed market)
- this links in to their provisioning and whether its sufficient
- will any of their warehouse lenders not roll over their facilities at which point it may be very challenging for them to continue
- their growth seems to be in car loans and some of that market is weakening (prices falling so perhaps the 'collateral' is not worth as much as they initially thought)

Having said all the above:
- the business has not written off more than what has already been provided for (that I'm aware of, but this is a slightly murky area and businesses have significant leeway in this area because auditors are not really able to challenge business knowledge & experience)
- they have been extremely disciplined in not moving that loan book and just maintaining it at the ~1.2bn level (so only writing new loans once others have expired)
- they are both cashflow and pbt positive for what will be 18 mths

I think this offers decent risk reward even after todays move, but just be aware that this is probably worth somewhere in the $100-150m MC (my finger in the air based on profits), which means ~12-18c but certainly not worth what it was a couple of years ago (well factor in significant dilution first)