Hi
@Taureanbull
Apologies I didn't have a chance to reply sooner, I did see your tag request in imu earlier in the week.
My disclosure - I have held NEU in the past but moved my funds to IMU after it stagnated following the unexpected drop on the NA deal announcement. I have wanted to reassess it if and when IMU does its thing, but have more than made up for the loss I decided to take here. I am not up to date with the fundamentals here, so this analysis is entirely based on technicals. If anyone is interested you can read my view on how technical analysis and fundamentals work together
here.
Starting with the most weighty down to the least relevant :
Monthly
I suspect that the next 3 days of trade are going to have a big impact on the next couple of months trade. Price is sitting right on the monthly e21(yellow) moving average. This, along with the s200(not drawn in) is the biggest S&R level on a chart. Bulls absolutely want June to close out the month above the e21 at 1.460 or higher. Bears absolutely want the price to close on or below the e21 at 1.455 or lower. This could create a bit of whipsaw unless a clear direction is established closing in on the 2pm, 30th June. The push up over the last few weeks does not count as a clear direction because it has only bought the price back to the e21. The touching of the e21 is a fairly common entry (for both buying and shorting). As can be seen the e21 has been the dominant resistance level for 16 months and will be a huge win if the bulls can close out June above it. Further to that if the bulls can close above (1.535 or higher) the pink 0% fib then the target is 1.860 based on fib trade rules (see
this post). The Cyan e55 is another significant resistance to get through at 1.590 along with each fib level shown in pink. The yellow fib levels will be stronger than the pink and will be key profit taking and entries for any shorter so will take a bit of chew to get through. Right now though it's all about the e21 battle. If the month closes above this, the price can still drop back below temporarily leaving behind a wick. An ideal entry if you are looking for one would be if the price got back to the green w5(weighted) currently seen at 1.38 in early July.
Weekly
The angles of the MA here indicate the sentiment has been changing to be more accepting of a move higher but it has not yet swung to bullish. We need to see the larger MA's flatten out more. Unfortunately when the e100 crossed under the e200 it put NEU on the long path to recovery and it will take quite some time for that (even still) to happen. But remember that this is based on a technical picture only, one news report can reverse the entire landscape in a moment, and you all know the possibilities of such news. In addition to previously mentioned resistance levels the strong s200 (dotted red) comes in at 1.815. Support and Buying opportunities come in at the e21 and the the three Pink fib levels below us, but be sure to wait for a bounce.
Daily
Here we finally have a much nicer looking chart. The bounce off the s200(dotted red) was a great entry point and when the bears failed to close out a day under it the bulls ran with it. The angles of the MA are all positive and even aggressive indicating a solid change in sentiment backed up with some momentum. Caution is needed however, because in addition to the end of June games and the monthly e21, here the price (and green w5) does not like to stay away from the yellow e21 for very long. You can expect a retrace to bring the price back some, however this will be healthy and required to hold on to long-term gains. If the blue e100 crosses over the red e200 then I would expect the w5 to bounce and turn upwards after pulling back towards them. If this cross occurs (and bounce of the green MA) then it is a strong high probability trend change signal.
![](https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/screenshot_20210626-062246_chrome-jpg.3310270/?temp_hash=488520fc6c69256f1d40407ca77c9fa2)
a
Hourly
The hourly chart below shows an example of the previously mentioned trend change signal where the blue
e100 crossed over the red e200 followed by the bounce of the green w5. The result of this signal was the pop-up that is shown. Scaling this up to a larger time frame example on the daily as mentioned both you can expect a similar move but larger scale.
From a technical point of view, any positive news releases should be met with enthusiasm in the price as NEU appears to represent a decent value entry for new and previous investors.