Didnt seem to be any new info worth noting in the commentary.
Although a couple of items on slide 11 of 41 re-capping the Q1 22FY results which I must have missed when they did their last quarterly.
- Average booking value was $1,235 for Q1 22FY (vs $1,020 21FY/ $870 20FY and $790 19FY)
Made a bit of a difference to my Base Scenario modelling - I had just assumed growth in Avg Booking of inflation per annum but this is now growing in excess of 20% p.a.
- # of bookings made in Q1 22FY was 7,093
- As noted in their Q1 2022FY reporting, they added another 19,898 potential hirers to the platform (which made up 28% of my full year 2022FY increase of 70,000+ newbies on the platform)
So running some quick numbers on this to give us a full year view:
Paying hirers in the Platform by 30/6/2022 - approx 140,000 (continuing the 100% growth rate from prior years)
Bookings made by 30/6/2022 - estimating 56,000
Average Booking Value - Assume remaining at the Q1 22FY level of $1,235 per booking
Therefore GTV equals $69.16m for full year 2022FY (excluding NZ acquisition GTV)
Take rate we can assume 26%
Camplify Revenue (excl NZ Acquisition) therefore = approx $18m
Gross Margin (excl Van sales) = 68% assumed
Gross Profit = $12.24m
Gross Profit After Paid Acquisition (expected Marketing costs) = $9.50m approx
Then we can use a few valuation metrics
EV/GTV multiple of 2.0x = $138.32 Enterprise Value
EV/NTM Revenue multiple of 10x = $180m Enterprise Value
Gross Profit After Paid Acquisition (GPAP) Multiple of 14x = $133 m Enterprise Value
Shares (Diluted) on issue excl NZ acquisition = 40.9m
Cash on Hand at Q1 = $17.786m
Therefore you could have a market cap ranging from $151m to $198m or $3.69 to $4.84 per share (excl NZ share dilution but also excluding it's impact on revenue)
But I suspect we'll find that because of the explosiveness of the top line revenue growth coming out of lockdown, the market will more than likely focusing on that revenue growth and EV/NTM revenue multiple for valuation. Therefore the $4.50 plus share price becomes more and more likely as we get Q2 and Q3 reports. And no doubt the share price gets ahead of itself and we start seeing greater than 10x EV/NTM multiples being applied which will then likely see it's share price give the $5 level and above a good shake.
Either way, the underlying numbers are trending in the right direction if your holding this great marketplace for the long term.
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