We're quickly approaching 5% market share - at about 4.5% now, I...

We're quickly approaching 5% market share - at about 4.5% now, I think. The others brokers will have to be taking note.

If anything, the user growth is accelerating. Not even constant growth. So reaching 10% market share seems likely in a year, or possibly sooner.

Eg. this is the added active users by quarter (Q1-20 -> Q1-18):

	4200	2235	2196	2404	2271	1312	1121	753	510

and approx market share

	4.0%	3.1%	2.6%	2.1%	1.5%	1.0%	0.8%	0.5%	0.3%

Market share rose from ~1.5% to ~4.0% in 1 year, while adding 2200-2400 active traders per quarter. These past 4 months have been adding traders at a rate of 4000+ per quarter.

This recent quarter was clearly stronger for some reason, even with low advertising (they mentioned snowballing organic growth - word of mouth and referral program), they added 4200 active traders (record high). I think October is matching or beating the previous quarter, in terms of absolute growth.

$33m market cap or so at today's SP. What would it be worth to the incumbents to take out one of their largest competitors (once we reach 10%+)?

There's not much reason to sell out though, with the advisor platform only going to contribute to growth from now.


I have some revised numbers after confirming some things:
- Q1 had 26,150 trades per month average, including quite a lot of free trades from the EOFY sale.
- Oct looked to have 28,500 trades. So 9.2% higher than the previous quarter average, and I expect there were less free trades in Oct (meaning a higher proportion of paid trades and thus higher revenue).

- Clients and client cash up ~11% in Oct (I think those numbers are for end-Oct, not mid-Nov. The 11% higher cash will roughly offset the RBA cut).

- So overall, 10%+ growth this month. Enough to move market share from 4.0% to 4.5% or so.
- Likely enough to keep revenue growing even after the RBA cut, so we've pushed through that headwind, I believe. Meaning there's less headwinds remaining ahead, since RBA can't keep cutting forever.

Also I think the international trading division has a supplier agreement in place, so just waiting on a lot of development to get it ready for release, so it's not on hold. I think that's still the next priority (along with getting ETF and advisor running well). You'd expect that to be a low cost offering (other than dev costs), so it would offer incremental revenue with little variable costs.


I saw somebody asking - what's the catch with SelfWealth? Any hidden fees? Everybody replied, no catch, just a couple of drawbacks like delay to get cash in.

I bought some more since the SP is off its highs, while growth in October looked to be continuing or accelerating. The growth can't keep it up forever, but right now it seems to be accelerating rather than decelerating.