MYX mayne pharma group limited

@RBR Yes, I do dabble in the dark arts of forecasting and like...

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    @RBR Yes, I do dabble in the dark arts of forecasting and like many long suffering shareholders, I am hoping for a quick turnaround but I know that any price forecast has to be supported by improving fundamentals and so far this financial year we may have seen this turnaroud.

    So, on a technical basis first, the slope and duration of this turn around has only been seen 3 times in the last 15 years, the last two times corresponded with approval of Nextellis and Covid recovery, on these two occasions the equal range movement would take us to between $6 and $7 by early January, the third range corresponded with the transformation of Fauldings a long time ago and this range , if repeated, would take us to $13-$14 by Feb 2024 (6monthly report).

    On a fundamental basis, I believe that this company will deliver the first profit in 7 years and EPS of $0.3 to $0.7 this FY year and well over that in FY25. I think revenue will be around $400M maybe higher, so we have to compare multiples to 2014 to 2016 when the company was making profits, on a P/E, Price/Sales, Price/Book, Price/Cashflow multiples, traded in profitable periods, puts this company between $16 and $35/ share by the end of next calendar year (full report 2024 and 4 mths 2025).

    As I said at the beginning, this is dark arts stuff but it is much easier to forecast when threre's clarity in the reported accounts, and now we have that.
    Cheers H


 
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