You're completely on the money RB - that's more or less the conclusion I reached after today's AGM.
The team were fortunate to be "in the boardrooms" of potential acquisitions when the adjacent acreage became available. They've locked in 6000 predominantly contiguous acres, and the remaining 7000 (some of which will be secured in the coming days and weeks) surrounds the core acreage already locked in. They seem confident that a major oiler won't try and beat them to any of the acreage yet to be secured, as they already control the heart of it. They've also secured the land on three year (rather than a more typical two year) lease.
Once most/all land is secured, we can expect to learn where it is. Sounds like it's in the heart of Dimmit, La Salle, McMullen, Karnes and DeWitt. Mike said it's pretty much where the text is on slide 7 of the presentation (Acreage situated in......)
Mike also mentioned that this was the most non-dilutive acquisition available. For a small amount of money, they can get oil flowing, reserves up and access the Wells Fargo facility. Another shareholder asked Mike what a small amount is (given that everything is big in Texas). He replied that they were planning to lock in the remaining acreage, do a bit of land work and fund the drilling of six wells. They hope to start drilling in the next "three to five months", with three wells drilled and fracked in a row - so the first well completed and flowing three months after commencement. A previous lease holder prepared a number of drill pads on part of the lease, and rigs and manpower are plentiful and now cost about $15k a day. We have pipelines with surplus capacity running past our acreage. I'm assuming they will want at least $20 million, and that should they sell Blue Ridge (which at today's WTI is worth $3 million in profit a year) that sale should take a large chunk out of the start-up amount. As stated on slide 13, a number of options, and combinations of options, are under consideration.
I personally hope they sell Blue Ridge and do not pursue a major acquisition any time soon. Mike mentioned that their three acquisition targets are still on the market. He also noted that any major acquisition, requiring substantial capital from US investors, will likely result in substantially greater dilution than the Eagle Ford acreage. Mike's a shareholder too, so I'm feeling confident he's not about to come running to us for a massively dilutive capital raise/rights issue.
A couple other interesting notes - 400 potential wells is at 60 to 80 acre spacing (for potentially 230 million boe) - they expect to halve those (spacings as small as 20 acres have been achieved) - so 800 potential wells are possible. The $700 million value mentioned on slide 12 was based on the NYMEX forward strip from a few weeks ago. At the Wall Street Consensus figures, the value surpasses $1B.
I've previously been exposed to the EFS through holding TXN/SEA for a number of years. The price paid for this acreage is pretty impressive considering its (apparent) location. I don't doubt the new Maverick team have pulled plenty of 12 hour days running the ruler over scores of potential acquisitions, and that the one we now have may end up being the best value re-boot we shareholders could have hoped for. This asset certainly has the potential to create a $500m to $1B market cap oiler. We should be relieved they didn't feel pressure to do something/anything and pick up a lesser asset. Full credit to them also for cleaning up Blue Ridge (not only are the land owners now happy, but they have received several unsolicited offers to buy it).
My comments are my interpretation of what was discussed this morning, and may not be entirely accurate.
FDM Price at posting:
6.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
