Originally posted by rsah17
Quite a few interesting items.
1. Not a word about "hedging" in the entire presentation! So we have gone from beating the drum on "risk reduction" at all levels...to not even talking about their loss on "hedging"? On page 11, the presentation says "Seaborne market relies on high cost US supply >$170/t FOB. That translates to NZ$250...which is about NZ$153/t margin. Incidentally, BRL management earlier said NZ$160/t is "super high margin". I guess they now suddenly saw the light and no longer talk about this being "super high" as the futures prices is higher than US$173 all the way out to Jan 2021. Well...the damage has been done...let's hope they go slow on that "hedging".
2. If they made NZ$28 million in the first quarter when coking coal prices were lower than second quarter, how on earth does one forecast a lower EBITDA for the second quarter? The only explanation I can think of, is that their "hedging" costs us money. That also means that the Q3 and Q4 estimates have been massively low balled at NZ$20 million EBITDA. Coking coal future prices are all above levels seen in the first quarter. So we should really be somewhere between NZ$100 million and NZ$112 million, assuming our experts have not lost even more on "hedging" than it appears.
3. Court case: interesting tidbit that we only need to win on one of "number of grounds" to reverse the loss. We will believe it when we see it.
4. Rotoaro. Reserve is given as 2.3 million tons. That suggests at least a 4 year mine life at 621kt/year. And what about the resources...are they of zero value? Even 50% conversion to reserves should equal another 5 years of mine life. This is confusing. They need to do a better job of explaining Waipuna West, Ruawaro and the rest of Rotowaro.
5. On Rotowaro, we are going from 621kt/year to 400kt/year. Why the drop? Looks like some big buyer did not renew their contract.
6. In an earlier presentation, we were being told that BRL would get 76% of the HCC price. Now we are back to 80% (page 10). Why the 4% difference?
7. In its Solid Energy incarnation, Stockton used to produce 2+ million tons a year. Somehow we are not able to that level now. Why is that?
I look forward to your clarifying at the AGM today!
(Like our old friend xmanrocks was going to do a year ago with the RCPS and stuff...)
Haven't read through it with a fine tooth comb, but looks pretty good - slightly surprised we haven't seen yet another EBITDA upgrade, but they probably want to roll that out later on in the year... not that the market cares how much BRL is making anyway, rolled out 4 profit upgrades in the last FY and share price went sideways.
